Thursday, January 15, 2009

Recession in the U.S. - US Recession Impact On world

Recession in the U.S. - US Recession Impact On world, could drag the rest of the world

Multilateral institution that provides our country will grow 7% in 2008 and 6% in 2009

The economy of Latin America would be affected by the economic slowdown that crosses the United States, although the impact would be smaller than on previous occasions, due to decreasing dependence on the region with respect to the first performance, he designed the International Monetary Fund (IMF ), in its report "World Economic Outlook." According to the document, the U.S. economy grow 0.5% this year and 0.6% in 2009, which, according to the IMF, including a mild recession in comparison with the 2.2% expansion in 2007.

As a result, Latin America would grow 4.4% in 2008 and 3.6% in 2009 to slow growth when compared with the figure of 2007, which was 5.6%. Emerging economies will grow 6.7% this year compared to 7.9% last year, which is still considered a "robust growth" by the IMF.

The Eurozone will also feel the impact of the financial crisis and will grow only 1.4%. The vast majority of forecasts are low, and even correct estimates in January this year. The IMF predicts that the world will grow 3.7%. In January an estimated growth of 4.1%.

The increasing reliance of the Latin American countries with respect to the growth of Asian economies, particularly China and India - continue to grow above 9% - as well as better macroeconomic conditions and policies of fiscal responsibility limit the impact of the U.S. recession in Latin America, the IMF stressed.

IMF economist Augusto de la Torre said that while the possibility of a recession in the U.S. is a source of concern, while China continues to grow, the impact on the region will be limited by increased trade links with that country and the largest Chinese investment in mining and agriculture. "

Commends the PERÚ
The IMF report highlighted the case of Peru as far as fiscal reforms and growth rates are concerned. He estimated that Peru will grow 7% this year and 6% in 2009.

The manager of Economic Studies of BBVA, Hugo Perea, commented that it is worth underlining the fact that the IMF considers that Peru is the country of the region recorded the highest growth rates, next to Argentina.

De la Torre recommended that countries with emerging economies that "the first line of defense should be monetary policy, ie price stability. The report predicts a global slowdown, but noted that, while the prices of food and energy continue to rise driven by demand from Asian countries.

Stagnation with inflation
4Algunos economists do not rule out that it can occur in the U.S. stagflation, a phenomenon that describes an economic decline, while a rise in prices, as happened in this country in the late 70's. The term was coined by the British Minister for Finance, Ian McLeod, in 1965.

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