Showing posts with label Spain Economic Recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spain Economic Recession. Show all posts

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Economic Recession - Spain Economic Recession

Economic Recession - Spain Economic Recession

We are in recession and slowdown. The economic crisis rages. For the usual negative effects on workers with workers destroyed some 800,000 jobs, now joins the novel and unique fact that the crisis is to prey upon the middle classes, social and traditionally wealthy and productive.

In Spain, traders, self-employed and small businesses in general, have endured a serious situation that results in loss of business. Every day, at least, close a trade in Spain. Similarly, the poverty is over 16% share in that it includes children (one in four is poor) to survive on poor and peak around six euros a month, an amount that is legally recognized as an indicator of poverty .

Thousands of autonomous activity had ceased, and provinces, Alicante leads the further destruction of commercial establishments and the highest rate of casualties from the Social Security workers. Only in this province have closed their businesses given the low SS about 6000 people in what we have in years, resulting in an approximate ratio of 500 casualties per month, with a minimum of 300 and a maximum of 600.

Therefore, requests for assistance to Caritas has increased by 45% over the previous year. Indeed, those who were once partners are now using its services such as clothes and food, mainly. Gentes economy until recently half and never had been impoverished come to this organization to receive help from food and clothes because they need to meet these basic needs.

On top of all evil, the Spanish economy will not grow more than 2% and even at around 1 or 1.5%, and even some experts predict that in 2009 growth could reach 0, which would entail a massive loss there would be jobs and job creation. Ie total stalemate, a very crude picture.

And to alleviate this situation and minimize the effects of the crisis must be fought resolutely arrimando shoulder all: state autonomy, county, municipalities, employers, workers and families .... Since the public sector through the private economy to reach the last link in the chain that is the family (home or home economics) all we have to implement measures against the crisis and recession.

Economist Luis Albentosa (Member of the Board of Directors of the National Energy Commission) calls for the low labor flexibility and reduce the price for ending the crisis. This expert believes (correctly by the way) that can go three ways. In the first case would be quickly and would grow the economy. In the second, would maintain low rates of growth. And third, even worse, would collapse and would not have a lift, as in Italy. Thus, the forecasts were made based on the behavior of economic agents, emerging from the crisis more or less quickly depending on such behavior. This not only depend on the central government but also the private sector, powerful and decisive.

Add this prestigious economist nearly two main ways out of the crisis by adjusting the prices and quantities, lowering wages and housing prices. This applies to the problem of housing a million empty houses so no one can recover the construction sector. Albentosa rightly says that these homes can only be absorbed (sale) if they lower their prices considerably, something that has already begun to practice but is soon to check their effectiveness and recovery.

This expert says that if there is no flexibility to lower wages will happen much more unemployment. In addition they must also emphasizes reduced prices. Albentosa states that Spain is now poorer, a fact, and says that we must accept it, otherwise the greatest difficulties arise.

Economist calls for flexible working to prevent further losing jobs and places as an example that other Western economies more down its Gross Domestic Product destroyed fewer jobs than Spain.

However, one thing I disagree with the economist Luis Albentosa it offers the path to reducing wages to end the crisis. If salaries are dramatically lower (wages of workers and employees employed persons, the most disadvantaged) thousands or millions of Spaniards may not survive. Lowering the cost of dismissal (against the advice of this expert) would produce an exorbitant increase in unemployment and new poor. A choice between cutting costs Albentosa style 'meat or fish', ie wages or prices or to choose, I prefer to order the State to implement the price reduction. If revenue is lost is that fair prices fall, especially anything that is vital, and basic necessities. And speaking of those cuts ... charge more, as politicians, wealthy businessmen and senior officials should set an example by reducing their salaries because it is not enough to 'freeze'.

And at least those that have not cut their salaries. And to lower gasoline, food, clothing, light and gas, among other needs. Apretémonos belt but do not just pay for sinners, not be sacrificed or suffer the same as always, those who have less: weak, underprivileged, needy, humble and poor. That powerful and ostentatious millionaires, "pay" the crisis. Everything is soon to leave the best possible recession.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Spain Economic Recession - La Caixa believes that the recession will last until end 2009

Spain Economic Recession - La Caixa believes that the recession will last until end 2009


Employment is expected to reduce half the 3% and the average unemployment rate reached 15.2% and 16% attrition in the last quarter, to 3,700,000 unemployed

La Caixa an estimated decline of the Spanish economy of 1.3 percent in 2009 and ensures that the economic downturn will last until the last quarter of this year or the first of 2010.

That explained the chief economist of La Caixa, Jordi Gual, during the presentation of the monthly economic report prepared by the organization department of studies and ensuring that the current economic crisis will have a "less harsh" while a "longer period" that Spanish economic recession of 1993.

The study forecasts that employment is reduced by an average of 3% and the average unemployment rate reached 15.2% this year and 16% attrition in the last quarter, to 3,700,000 unemployed, a figure that would rise in the first months of 2010.

However, as explained Gual, the Research Department "does not see this year's four million unemployed and that there are" factors to be optimistic, "such as low inflation is achieved and the expected decline in interest rates . Thus, the report forecasts that the CPI will fall below 2% in the coming months and the average inflation in 2009 reached 1.4%, while an estimated drop in interest rates to 1.5% in the second half of the year.

Gual said that the fall of the Spanish GDP is higher in the first and second quarter of 2009 and growth will not occur until the fourth or the first quarter of 2010.

In this regard, said the economic downturn could last five consecutive quarters (taking into account the negative data from the third quarter of 2008 and the decline forecast for the fourth quarter).

This decrease is due to falling domestic demand of 2.7% and investment in about 8%, mainly for the construction, which would fall 10.3% in 2009. Household consumption returned 1.8% while the government would grow by 3.8%.

According to Gual the "real adjustment" is to be "harder and longer" than in the recession of 1993 and Spanish as "burdens" the high level of debt and excessive dependence on external financing. However, they also considered that "there is an excess of pessimism" and estimated that the economy is natural adjustment mechanisms that prevent the sinking in misery. "

He stressed that Spain has room for the drive to increase the fiscal and debt, and calculated the public deficit in 2009 at an average rate of 5.5%. He also praised the benefits that the Spanish economy will bring down the price of raw materials and oil, and estimated the value of net imports of energy this year, down 1% of GDP. Also, according to the Economic Report of La Caixa, the European Central Bank might again lower interest rates 0.5 points in their next two revisions, which would "reduce the cost of access to housing." On the international economic situation, the chief economist of La Caixa, said he was optimistic that the banking crisis "is in the process of stabilizing go."