Thursday, January 15, 2009

Economic Recession - Current Scenario

Economic Recession - Current Scenario

The economic data being recorded in recent weeks indicate increasingly clear that the world economy is on the brink of another economic recession.

The coincidence of this with the attacks in New York takes keen cause confusion and little justification, that the attacks have been the cause of the deteriorating economic scenario and new. This allows, in turn, that economic and military responses that are taking place to safeguard the interests of big industry to be the most technically desirable to improve the economic climate and to combat terrorism.

However, the real causes of change in the economic cycle and others are coming from further away, even though the attacks have contributed to exacerbate its effects.

The expansion over the past decade has seen the U.S. economy, and that has fueled the rest of the economies has been based primarily on an ultra-liberal regulation of labor markets, which has enabled a rapid and continuous adjustment of the workforce to business demands, at the expense of course a great loss of welfare and quality of jobs and on the other hand, inflation expectations with which he wanted to encourage take the call, and now almost forgotten "new economy".

But these two major bases for the expansion was also shut the limitations of this growth model.

Liberal regulation of labor and ensures a quick adjustment to suit the business needs to accelerate the pace of capital accumulation, since it allows companies no longer bear the labor costs almost as an inevitable burden of fixed costs.

But at the same time, the economy as a whole much more dependent on the cycles of demand and, in general, those variables that are supported in confidence or certainty.

Meanwhile, the over-the entire sector of the economy resulted in a real financial flatulence, as it was based on an artificial hypertrophy of the securities business and a massive debt that did not reflect the real potential for expansion the economy as a whole.

What was causing the U.S. economy was in a kind of overheating in the center of it, in the most technologically advanced, but in around them, or what it is like in most of the economic system, could be absorbed the energy that is created.

This is the big problem that the unsustainable economic system of our day: an immense capacity to create value but a real inability to do so effectively because only a very small part of the economy where you can get to the plate is divided.

The change log announcing economic data came in the second quarter warned of the decay of the U.S. economy because of these causes. And if the attacks have been so influential not only for its size, but because they have affected the circumstances that were more directly weakening the economy: the loss of confidence and uncertainty.

The deterioration so immense that they will record the statistics after the attacks can not be explained only by the lonely end of the latter, especially if you consider that going to affect a very wide range of activities and sectors and the U.S. government very active and intervened decisively to cushion the short-term and immediate effects of shock. It is estimated, for example, that the estimated growth rate of international trade will drop five or six percent to two percent in 2002, or that in the coming months Twenty-six million new registered unemployed in the OECD.

It can be said, therefore, that the attacks raised about wind blowing in the direction of the storm that had already begun to rise, reinforcing the trend towards recession brought a growth model inherently unstable and unsustainable.

In fact, the Bush Administration had started to address this drift past months (or even could say that his own election was contested and the first step in that direction) by mobilizing the macroeconomic regulatory system that is more reactionary known, but at the same time, more effective and profitable for the great American industry. Indeed, the declaration of war but did not make the solution to the big capitals had written in the logbook with Bush entered the White House: the use of military spending as a way to regulate the economy in periods of macroeconomic imbalance. Another time, or as always, the reactionary Keynesianism. It is no coincidence that the expansion phase is now closed just started with the Gulf War.

The effects of the economic measures Bush is already starting to hear: grants and contracts to large companies in the military industry and a generous pedrea for all those who financed his election campaign and sensitive tax breaks that primarily affect the levels higher income.

All this, while refusing spending increases that are linked to unemployment and, in general, to other social goals. New York firefighters, before and now proclaimed as heroes detained by police when protesting the reduction of staff, are a really obvious what is really neoliberalism.

It is very possible, in order that this is not just a temporary solution, which the Bush administration has learned the lesson of previous periods and, therefore, is not limited to taking such measures as short-term solution. Rather, it seems that this is a real strategic option to strengthen the military structure as a basis for economic growth more stable and secure than the volatile new economy that is moving only to shock and financialisation coup.

It must finally make a single mention on the international stage. The U.S. strategy will be carried out not only by his demonstrated ability of global leadership, but by the crisis and pathological Japan thanks to a phenomenon that deserves reflection singularizada the unfortunate sclerosis with which the EU is doing With world. Silenced in the political and encorsetada for a stability plan conceived expansionist past but can not simply give the nod to the guidelines imperial encomienda passively while the SINAES zarparzo to avoid that the crisis did not fully take into full changeover, which could become very chaotic.

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